Global Recession 2025. But nathan sheets and team continue to worry about. China, which represents nearly 20% of the world economy, has seen nominal gdp growth fall.

Our economists reduced their 2025 growth forecast modestly, by 0.2 percentage points on net to 4.5%, assuming chinese policymakers provide stimulus and some of the growth hit is offset by depreciation in the renminbi. We forecast global real gdp growth at 2.8% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, roughly in line with 2024.